Currently the futures are down a good 7 points on the SPX or 70 points on the Dow, however what I am looking at this morning is to put on a counter trend trade. I am going to try to fade this gap back up into it’s daily pivot, there I will assess price action and see whether I should hold my long position for more upside action or sell my longs for profit and reverse to the short trade.
Here is my thinking, above the 15 minute chart from Friday into overnight and current. If you draw a fib retracement from the High from Friday to the low, you get a 50% retracement at 1030.25. Look where we hit and sold off, that very same area. These percentage moves are powerful, I can not stress this enough. After studying in this subject I no longer use a single indicator, just the TICK. Anyway the target for this short trade is the -23.60 line at around 1018. I will look to cover my short around that area. There I will look for the long to play the gap fill, more often than not this will be filled in the first hour at least half way, if it doesn’t you know a trend day is developing and to place your next trade in the position of the trend.
Daily Pivot = 1029.50
Gap fill = 1027.50
Watch these numbers carefully, and good luck!