Hope everyone had a great week of trading! Even as short term traders it is imperative to ALWAYS know where we are trading in relation to the longer time frames. I try to bring this perspective from time to time to stay grounded and to realize the overall trend of this market. Most would argue that this can’t be a Bull Market because of the circumstances we are in. While that is certainly true and the debate of whether this is a bull market or still a bear market can still be debated. I think most can and should agree that at least the trend even on the longer time frame charts is and has been extremely bullish for some time.
This last week proved the point exactly, we broke out of all the short setups we had from the January – February correction and more than likely will be testing previous highs, and breaking them.
Another thing I pointed out awhile back as to why I felt the market had NOT topped in January, we touched the 1148 high in the ES 2-3 times! The pros would NOT give us that many chances to catch a significant market top like that, by studying historical price action.
So now armed with this information, what should we be looking at for upside targets? Well my top chart shows the picture, I said 1230’s will trade by summertime. The 1235 level is the 61% retracement from all time highs. We have 1200’s which is the low created by the Lehman’s Bros collapse and a significant double bottom we created back in early ’08 coming in at 1250’s levels.
All are serious targets that I am fully expecting to be hit, I believe this is a scenario where the market is moving higher to attract longer time frame sellers. The lack of overall volume tells me that so far the longer time frame sellers DON’T see these prices as high enough to get out of longs/ or establish new short positions.
Remember the longer time frame participants are the ones that move markets, so it is always imperative to see where they may come in. When they do come in, you will know. It will cause a supply/demand shock with unusually high volume.
As far as shorter term resistance levels, bottom chart shows the monthly chart with range extension targets. As the market continues to move up, if there happens to be a corrective reaction as it moves up, more than likely it will occur at one of these levels above for the month of March.
The 1140 level is currently where we are at right now, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 15 point or so correction around this level before moving to new highs. As always we’ll just have to wait and see.
SIDE NOTE: I have begun to trade the Euro, it is an amazing market that has 5-10x the daily range of the S+P and has a 2008 style move every year!!!! It is a money making machine, and I am going to start to post reviews on the Euro as well as I get more familiar with this amazing market, anyone have any questions about trading this monster market, please feel free to let me know.
Here’s to a great week of trading!