Over the last six months especially, we’ve seen tremendous strength in the cumulative advance decline line. Seeing these continued higher highs on the price chart above, it really shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that most of the broader market has been “grinding” higher as well.
One of the least talked about, but arguably the most important index is that of the S+P 100. Wikipedia explains it’s significance the best:
“The S&P 100, a subset of the S&P 500, includes 100 leading U.S. stocks with exchange-listed options. Constituents of the S&P 100 are selected for sector balance and represent about 57% of the market capitalization of the S&P 500 and almost 45% of the market capitalization of the U.S. equity markets. The stocks in the S&P 100 tend to be the largest and most established companies in the S&P 500.”
“The average market capitalization (weighted by market capitalization) of the S&P 100 is about twice that of the S&P 500 ($142 bn vs $68 bn as of April 2014). So it is larger than a large-cap index.”
In the long term chart above we now see this index has finally taken out it’s 2007 high. As the traditional S+P 500 index made a new all time high back in early 2013.
Another observation comes from the Dow Jones Industrial Average and it’s long term trend line above, as denoted in the above chart.
Taking a closer look at this trend line shows how it has seemed to do a decent job, as the index appears to be having some difficulty in getting and staying above. This could all change in an instant, there are some mixed messages the market has been sending this year. We have pointed out many of them. The likely explanation is a reversion to the mean, or consolidation, after such a tremendous year 2013 was for risk assets. I think it’s prudent to give the dominant trend the benefit of the doubt until it proves otherwise. History tells us there will be a double digit correction at some point. Unfortunately there is just no way for one to know in advance.
For now, these are just a few these that I am watching.