Today the price of Gold has made a new low for the year, falling $11 as I type this or roughly 1%. It’s been difficult for Gold investors since the price of Gold broke below $1525 (1 year trading range) in early 2013. Even with the recent uncertainty due to Greece, buyers still failed to push prices up in any meaningful way.
One of the simplest and most effective ways that I use to judge whether a trend is reversing or not, is to simply study the length of the counter trend moves. In this case we have Gold being in an Intermediate term downtrend, so the counter trend moves would be the rallies off support.
Unfortunately as depicted in the chart above, each counter trend rally in Gold has been weaker and weaker. The 2011-2012 trading range between $1525 and $1800 was $275 in length. The bounce off support at $1180 also reached the $275 length. And the last couple of retrace rallies have been in the $100-$170 variety. So it really should come as no surprise to see these near term support zones breached.
Since the first chart above was of the Gold futures contracts at end of day, it failed to take into account today’s price action. So here is a chart of GLD, or the Gold ETF, which shows the current lows being put into place.
So the question is what does this all mean. I can’t tell you what Gold prices will do or where they will be a year from now, nevermind 10 or 15 years out. But what I can say is that there is a confluence of support around the $100 level in GLD or roughly $1000 on the Gold spot futures contracts. Mainly in the form of the previous bull market high in 2008, which formed an inverted head and shoulders pattern that eventually say prices skyrocket to $1900 over the next couple of years.
I think it is likely that support will be found near this zone in the case that the price of Gold falls that far. However until or unless we see buyers step in and break this downtrend pattern, the odds are that Gold prices can continue to keep drifting lower.